Predictions on the record
Explore Shane Legg's AGI and superintelligence timeline: 8 sourced statements from Dec 7, 2009 to Sep 16, 2026. Compare what was said, when it was said, and any predicted arrival date.
This is a curated record, not a complete history or a scorecard. AGI and ASI labels group related language; the original wording and caveats remain below. How we document claims.
Prediction · AGI
Expected around 2028
Human-level AGI was most likely around 2025, with an expected date of 2028.
Source summary · not a verbatim quotation.
Legg specified a probability distribution rather than a deadline. He distinguished the mode, or most likely year, from the later mean of his skewed distribution.
Prediction · AGI
Expected 2018–2045
Kept his human-level AGI forecast at a 2028 mean and 2025 mode.
Source summary · not a verbatim quotation.
The annual update corrected the earlier stated 90% interval to approximately 2018–2045. It remained a probabilistic estimate with considerable uncertainty.
Prediction · AGI
50% chance · Expected by 2028
A 50% chance of human-level machine intelligence by 2028.
Source summary · not a verbatim quotation.
His 10%, 50% and 90% dates were 2018, 2028 and 2050. The estimate assumed no major disaster and continued favorable political and economic conditions.
Prediction · AGI
Expected around 2028
Human-level AGI still centered on 2028; an impressive proto-AGI might arrive within eight years.
Source summary · not a verbatim quotation.
The proposed intermediate system would learn basic perception, movement and language, and tackle unfamiliar simple problems. He distinguished it from full human-level AGI and retained major-disaster caveats.
Prediction · AGI
50% chance · Expected by 2028
“I think there's a 50% chance that we have AGI by 2028.”
He reaffirmed a long-held forecast and stressed that missing the date would be unsurprising. His definition covered the cognitive tasks humans typically perform.
Prediction · AGI
50% chance · Expected by 2028
There remains a fifty percent chance of minimal AGI by 2028.
Source summary · not a verbatim quotation.
Legg distinguished a minimum general-intelligence threshold from the fuller capabilities that could follow later. He reaffirmed a forecast he had made many years earlier.
Prediction · AGI
No arrival date specified
AGI is approaching and will profoundly reshape the economy.
Source summary · not a verbatim quotation.
Legg advertises a senior economist role to study post-AGI economics. The phrase about AGI approaching has no numeric timetable and must not be converted to a specific arrival year.
Prediction · AGI
No arrival date specified
AGI is approaching, making deeper study of its technical and social consequences urgent.
Source summary · not a verbatim quotation.
Legg announces the DeepMind Institute. The post supplies no date for AGI’s arrival.