Prediction · AGI
Shane Legg on AGI
Said
A 50% chance of human-level machine intelligence by 2028.
Source summary · not a verbatim quotation.
50% chance · Expected by 2028
His 10%, 50% and 90% dates were 2018, 2028 and 2050. The estimate assumed no major disaster and continued favorable political and economic conditions.
Source notes
Primary email interview, published June 17, 2011, giving explicit probability thresholds.