Prediction · AGI
Shane Legg on AGI
Said
There remains a fifty percent chance of minimal AGI by 2028.
Source summary · not a verbatim quotation.
50% chance · Expected by 2028
Legg distinguished a minimum general-intelligence threshold from the fuller capabilities that could follow later. He reaffirmed a forecast he had made many years earlier.
Source notes
Official December 11 interview with Hannah Fry; transcript and Legg's own LinkedIn post corroborate the estimate.