Predictions on the record
Explore Eli Lifland's AGI and superintelligence timeline: 3 sourced statements from Aug 25, 2023 to Mar 27, 2026. Compare what was said, when it was said, and any predicted arrival date.
This is a curated record, not a complete history or a scorecard. AGI and ASI labels group related language; the original wording and caveats remain below. How we document claims.
Prediction · AGI
Expected by 2036
“Would never have guessed Gary Marcus was at 35% for AGI within 13 years, that's pretty close to my own views”
Lifland says a reported 35% probability of AGI within thirteen years is close to his own view. The record captures Lifland’s endorsement, not an independently verified Gary Marcus forecast. His own probability is approximate rather than exactly 35%.
Prediction · AGI
50% chance · Expected by 2035
My median AGI arrival estimate is now 2035.
Source summary · not a verbatim quotation.
Lifland publishes a table of his and Daniel Kokotajlo’s changing AGI medians, listing his own late-2025 value as 2035 after an early-2025 value of 2031. The primary table is compressed data rather than a sentence, so the display uses an explicit editorial paraphrase. Their coauthored January 2026 retrospective confirms that these are AGI median forecasts. Earlier rows are not added as separate historical posts.
Prediction · ASI
50% chance · Expected around 2035
“I personally have an ASI median of ~2035”
Lifland gives an approximate median arrival year for ASI. The separate extinction probability and conditional timing in the same post are different forecasts. The public embed truncates the end of the post, but the ASI median is fully visible.