Prediction · AGI
Eli Lifland on AGI
Said
My median AGI arrival estimate is now 2035.
Source summary · not a verbatim quotation.
50% chance · Expected by 2035
Lifland publishes a table of his and Daniel Kokotajlo’s changing AGI medians, listing his own late-2025 value as 2035 after an early-2025 value of 2031. The primary table is compressed data rather than a sentence, so the display uses an explicit editorial paraphrase. Their coauthored January 2026 retrospective confirms that these are AGI median forecasts. Earlier rows are not added as separate historical posts.
Source notes
The original table and author were verified in X’s official public oEmbed. The coauthored January 2026 retrospective links this exact post as the source for Lifland’s November 2035 AGI median. UTC date was decoded from the post ID and checked against the embed date. Display text is an editorial paraphrase of the table.