Predictions on the record
Explore Daniel Kokotajlo's AGI and superintelligence timeline: 3 sourced statements from Apr 3, 2025 to Nov 20, 2025. Compare what was said, when it was said, and any predicted arrival date.
This is a curated record, not a complete history or a scorecard. AGI and ASI labels group related language; the original wording and caveats remain below. How we document claims.
Prediction · AGI + ASI
Expected around 2027
2027 is a plausible scenario for AGI followed by rapid superintelligence.
Source summary · not a verbatim quotation.
AI 2027 was a collaboratively authored scenario, not a promise or a 50% deadline. The authors distinguished a leading scenario from median timelines, which could be later.
Prediction · AGI
50% chance · Expected by 2029
“my bottom-line numbers are somewhat different (median ~EOY 2029)”
In an explicit discussion of AGI timelines with Ryan Greenblatt, Kokotajlo places his own median near the end of 2029. A median is a 50% cumulative probability date, not a claim that arrival cannot occur earlier or later. This is a dated update after AI 2027’s publication.
Prediction · AGI
Expected around 2030
“around 2030, lots of uncertainty though”
Kokotajlo says progress seems somewhat slower than the AI 2027 scenario and that his timeline was already later than 2027 when it was published. He describes his current public answer as around 2030 while explicitly retaining substantial uncertainty. His January 2026 retrospective identifies this as his November AGI median.