Prediction · AGI
Daniel Kokotajlo on AGI
Said
“my bottom-line numbers are somewhat different (median ~EOY 2029)”
50% chance · Expected by 2029
In an explicit discussion of AGI timelines with Ryan Greenblatt, Kokotajlo places his own median near the end of 2029. A median is a 50% cumulative probability date, not a claim that arrival cannot occur earlier or later. This is a dated update after AI 2027’s publication.
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