Prediction · AGI
Daniel Kokotajlo on AGI
Said
“around 2030, lots of uncertainty though”
Expected around 2030
Kokotajlo says progress seems somewhat slower than the AI 2027 scenario and that his timeline was already later than 2027 when it was published. He describes his current public answer as around 2030 while explicitly retaining substantial uncertainty. His January 2026 retrospective identifies this as his November AGI median.
Source notes
Author and exact excerpt verified in X’s official public oEmbed response. UTC date decoded from the post ID and checked against the embed date. The excerpt preserves the source’s wording; additional context is summarized separately.