Prediction · AGI
Vernor Vinge on AGI
Said
“I'd be surprised if the Technological Singularity hasn't happened by 2030.”
He explicitly excluded catastrophes such as global nuclear war. His threshold was the advent of superhuman intelligence, which he believed could arise through more than one technological route.
Source notes
Primary interview by John Ottinger III, published August 1, 2011; exact interview day unspecified.