Prediction · AGI
Vernor Vinge on AGI
Said
Technology would create greater-than-human intelligence within the next thirty years.
Source summary · not a verbatim quotation.
Expected by 2023
The paper also supplied a wider surprise window of 2005–2030. It considered multiple paths, including AI, networks, human-computer interfaces and biological enhancement, so it was not solely an AI-model forecast.
- Original terminology
- greater-than-human intelligence
Source notes
Primary essay identifies the March 30–31, 1993 symposium; section 1 contains both the thirty-year statement and the 2005–2030 window.