Predictions on the record
Explore Nathan Young's AGI and superintelligence timeline: 3 sourced statements from Aug 3, 2022 to Nov 18, 2024. Compare what was said, when it was said, and any predicted arrival date.
This is a curated record, not a complete history or a scorecard. AGI and ASI labels group related language; the original wording and caveats remain below. How we document claims.
Prediction · AGI
Expected by 2042
“Like I think on balance we have AGI in 20 years.”
Young discusses how having children fits with his expectation of AGI within twenty years. “On balance” indicates a personal expectation without a stated numerical probability.
Prediction · AGI
10% chance · Expected by 2028
“I think there is a 10% chance we have human level AGI in 5 years.”
Young gives a 10% chance of human-level AGI within five years of April 2023. This low-probability near-term forecast is distinct from his longer-horizon forecasts.
Prediction · AGI
65% chance · Expected by 2034
“I predict AGI in the next 10 years (65%)”
Young gives a 65% probability of AGI within ten years of November 2024. This is a probabilistic forecast, not a claim that arrival is guaranteed.