Predictions on the record
Explore John Carmack's AGI and superintelligence timeline: 3 sourced statements from Aug 4, 2022 to Sep 25, 2023. Compare what was said, when it was said, and any predicted arrival date.
This is a curated record, not a complete history or a scorecard. AGI and ASI labels group related language; the original wording and caveats remain below. How we document claims.
Prediction · AGI
55–60% chance · Expected by 2030
A 55–60% chance of AGI showing signs of life by 2030.
Source summary · not a verbatim quotation.
He raised an earlier 50% estimate slightly. The milestone was an initial demonstration, not a claim that robust AGI already existed.
Prediction · AGI
60% chance · Expected by 2030
Maybe a 60% chance of initial AGI by 2030; about 95% by 2050.
Source summary · not a verbatim quotation.
He defined the first milestone as a computer-based being recognized as intelligent and conscious. He separated that from immediate large economic effects.
Prediction · AGI
Expected 2029–2031
“We are six, seven, eight years out from something really big and important being publicly visible.”
At Richard Sutton's hiring announcement, Carmack forecast visible AGI progress while admitting nobody yet had a complete solution.