Prediction · AGI
John Carmack on AGI
Said
Maybe a 60% chance of initial AGI by 2030; about 95% by 2050.
Source summary · not a verbatim quotation.
60% chance · Expected by 2030
He defined the first milestone as a computer-based being recognized as intelligent and conscious. He separated that from immediate large economic effects.
Source notes
Published in the 2023 annual magazine and circulated online by February 6; exact interview/publication day unverified.