Prediction · AGI
John Carmack on AGI
Said
A 55–60% chance of AGI showing signs of life by 2030.
Source summary · not a verbatim quotation.
55–60% chance · Expected by 2030
He raised an earlier 50% estimate slightly. The milestone was an initial demonstration, not a claim that robust AGI already existed.
Source notes
Episode date verified on original publisher page; wording cross-checked against episode transcript.