View on the timeline

Prediction · AGI

I. J. Good on AGI

Said

An ultraintelligent machine might arrive around 1994, with ten years of uncertainty in either direction.

Source summary · not a verbatim quotation.

Expected 1984–2004

An approximate interval, not a firm deadline.

Original terminology
ultraintelligent machine
Source notes

Secondary review cites the original paper's page 69.