Prediction · AGI
I. J. Good on AGI
Said
A useful artificial brain could take roughly 13 to 30 years, conditional on it being achieved within the next century.
Source summary · not a verbatim quotation.
Expected 1972–1989
Good gave a central estimate of 20 years multiplied or divided by 1.5, conditional on development within 100 years, which he considered more likely than not. A sufficiently capable machine could then design a better successor.
- Original terminology
- artificial brain
Source notes
Primary report dated June 2, 1959, pp. 16–17; based on a December 17, 1958 lecture, whose exact wording was not separately verified.