Predictions on the record
Explore Yoshua Bengio's AGI and superintelligence timeline: 3 sourced statements from Jun 24, 2023 to Oct 22, 2025. Compare what was said, when it was said, and any predicted arrival date.
This is a curated record, not a complete history or a scorecard. AGI and ASI labels group related language; the original wording and caveats remain below. How we document claims.
Prediction · ASI
Expected 2028–2043
“My current estimate places a 95% confidence interval for the time horizon of superhuman intelligence at 5 to 20 years.”
Bengio explicitly reduced his earlier 20–100-year horizon after these systems' progress. He still identified missing capabilities and uncertainty.
Prediction · AGI
Expected by 2043
Human-level AI could arrive in the next two decades, possibly within a few years.
Source summary · not a verbatim quotation.
His written Senate testimony framed this as a possibility motivating precautions, not a declaration of arrival.
Prediction · AGI + ASI
No arrival date specified
Frontier AI could match or exceed human capabilities within a few years, requiring safeguards and public participation.
Source summary · not a verbatim quotation.
Bengio supports the Statement on Superintelligence while framing the potential timeline as a possibility. A few years is intentionally left unconverted to an exact year.