Predictions on the record
Explore Nick Bostrom's AGI and superintelligence timeline: 2 sourced statements from 1998 to Jun 2017. Compare what was said, when it was said, and any predicted arrival date.
This is a curated record, not a complete history or a scorecard. AGI and ASI labels group related language; the original wording and caveats remain below. How we document claims.
Prediction · ASI
Expected by 2033
There was a case for superhuman artificial intelligence within the first third of the twenty-first century.
Source summary · not a verbatim quotation.
Bostrom assembled conditional arguments about hardware and brain-inspired software. In a 2008 postscript he clarified that this was a case for the possibility, not an all-things-considered prediction above 50% probability.
Prediction · AGI
No arrival date specified
Human-level AI within several decades is plausible.
Source summary · not a verbatim quotation.
He stressed substantial uncertainty in both directions.