Predictions on the record
Explore Jürgen Schmidhuber's AGI and superintelligence timeline: 2 sourced statements from Jun 15, 2011 to Nov 23, 2016. Compare what was said, when it was said, and any predicted arrival date.
This is a curated record, not a complete history or a scorecard. AGI and ASI labels group related language; the original wording and caveats remain below. How we document claims.
Prediction · AGI
No arrival date specified
“High for the next few decades”
He was answering how likely a human-level or subhuman AI was to improve itself rapidly into vastly greater intelligence. He linked theoretical work, including Gödel machines; this was not a claim that such a working system already existed.
Prediction · AGI
No arrival date specified
“Once we have animal-level AI, a few years or decades later we may have human-level AI”
His own essay forecast animal-level neural AI within a few years, with human-level intelligence potentially following years or decades later.