Predictions on the record
Explore Herbert Simon's AGI and superintelligence timeline: 2 sourced statements from Nov 14, 1957 to Apr 7, 1960. Compare what was said, when it was said, and any predicted arrival date.
This is a curated record, not a complete history or a scorecard. AGI and ASI labels group related language; the original wording and caveats remain below. How we document claims.
With a caveat · AGI
Arrival claim with a caveat
There are now machines that think, learn and create; their range of problems will expand toward the human range.
Source summary · not a verbatim quotation.
Simon's address presented work co-authored with Allen Newell, including their theorem-proving program. The assertion of existing thought was broader than the demonstrated tasks; the complete human problem range remained a future expectation without a date.
Prediction · AGI
Expected by 1980
Within twenty years, machines would be technically capable of any work a person could do.
Source summary · not a verbatim quotation.
Simon distinguished technological capability from economic adoption. He expected people to retain comparative advantages in flexible manual work, some problem solving and interpersonal services.