Prediction · AGI

Hans Moravec on AGI

Robotics researcher and doctoral candidate, Stanford University

Said September 3, 1977

If hardware projections held and software kept pace, machines thinking as well as humans could begin appearing in ten years.

Source summary · not a verbatim quotation.

Expected around 1987

The essay explicitly made the timing conditional on both hardware and software. It forecast an additional 15 years for human-equivalent computing to become as inexpensive as a pocket calculator.

Original terminology

human equivalence