Predictions on the record
Explore roon's AGI and superintelligence timeline: 2 sourced statements from Jun 5, 2022 to Mar 22, 2024. Compare what was said, when it was said, and any predicted arrival date.
This is a curated record, not a complete history or a scorecard. AGI and ASI labels group related language; the original wording and caveats remain below. How we document claims.
With a caveat · AGI
Arrival claim with a caveat
“agi is already here”
Roon points to GitHub Copilot’s expected effect on programming productivity and uses economic growth as an AGI criterion. The arrival claim is tied to that economic interpretation rather than a demonstrated general-purpose autonomous system.
Arrival claim · AGI
Claimed AGI had arrived
“GPT3 was agi”
Roon retrospectively calls GPT-3 AGI in March 2024. The short statement gives neither an operational definition nor a date when the speaker first held this view; it remains dated to publication.