Predictions on the record

Richard Sutton AGI predictions

Explore Richard Sutton's AGI and superintelligence timeline: 2 sourced statements from May 9, 2011 to Sep 25, 2023. Compare what was said, when it was said, and any predicted arrival date.

This is a curated record, not a complete history or a scorecard. AGI and ASI labels group related language; the original wording and caveats remain below. How we document claims.

Richard Sutton's statements, earliest to latest

Prediction · AGI
May 9, 2011
Expected around 2030
“Roughly 2030.”
Sutton gave this answer when asked when he expected human-level AI. The short report does not specify a probability or detailed definition.
Source: Shane Legg's report of Sutton's Gatsby Unit talk Full statement and source notes →
Prediction · AGI
September 25, 2023
Expected by 2030
A prototype AGI showing early signs of life by 2030 is possible.
Source summary · not a verbatim quotation.
He thought existing techniques could support the effort, while Keen still faced fundamental research questions.
Source: The Register — Keen announcement Full statement and source notes →

Richard Sutton AGI predictions

Richard Sutton's statements, earliest to latest

May 9, 2011

September 25, 2023