Predictions on the record
Explore Masayoshi Son's AGI and superintelligence timeline: 4 sourced statements from Oct 4, 2023 to Feb 3, 2025. Compare what was said, when it was said, and any predicted arrival date.
This is a curated record, not a complete history or a scorecard. AGI and ASI labels group related language; the original wording and caveats remain below. How we document claims.
Prediction · AGI
Expected by 2033
AGI will surpass humanity's combined intelligence tenfold within ten years.
Source summary · not a verbatim quotation.
Son used an unusually strong definition of AGI: exceeding humans across almost every field. This is an English paraphrase of his Japanese keynote.
Prediction · AGI
Expected by 2034
“In less than ten years, AGI will be realized”
His annual-report message anticipated AGI first, then vastly more capable superintelligence in approximately ten years. These are separate capability thresholds.
Prediction · AGI
Expected 2026–2027
AGI will be achieved in two to three years.
Source summary · not a verbatim quotation.
At SoftBank World, Son shortened his earlier horizon and separately predicted superintelligence within a decade.
Prediction · AGI
Expected by 2027
AGI will arrive much sooner than two years.
Source summary · not a verbatim quotation.
First deployed in large Japanese companies.