Prediction · AGI
Expected 2037–2067
Humanlike understanding and reasoning might require another 20–50 years.
Source summary · not a verbatim quotation.
A longer horizon, specifically for unfamiliar situations.
Predictions on the record
Gary Marcus AGI predictions
Explore Gary Marcus's AGI and superintelligence timeline: 2 sourced statements from Jun 2017 to Jan 22, 2023. Compare what was said, when it was said, and any predicted arrival date.
This is a curated record, not a complete history or a scorecard. AGI and ASI labels group related language; the original wording and caveats remain below. How we document claims.
Gary Marcus's statements, earliest to latest
Prediction · AGI
No arrival date specified
AGI may arrive before this century ends, but current language models lack several essential capabilities.
Source summary · not a verbatim quotation.
Marcus contrasts his own eventual-AGI optimism with Grady Booch’s expectation of a timescale spanning generations. The article is a conversation, so this record represents Marcus’s own position.