Prediction · AGI
kat on AGI
Said
Kat gives a 60% chance of AGI within five to twenty years and 90% within three to sixty years.
Source summary · not a verbatim quotation.
60% chance · Expected 2030–2045
The @transkatgirl account states two nested probability intervals in September 2025. The displayed interval is the 60% estimate, approximately 2030–2045; the wider 90% interval is approximately 2028–2085. The same post predicts widespread labor replacement within ten years after AGI, which is a separate conditional event.
Source notes
Original post identity and visible wording checked against X’s official public oEmbed. UTC publication date decoded from the post ID. This records an attributed personal claim, not the archive’s conclusion that AGI exists.