Prediction · AGI
Aaron Bergman on AGI
Said
Bergman gives a 50% chance of AGI by 2027, while emphasizing uncertainty and presenting several other probability thresholds.
Source summary · not a verbatim quotation.
50% chance · Expected by 2027
The post gives a distribution rather than one confident date: 20% by the end of 2024, 40% by 2026, 50% by 2027, 70% by 2030, 80% by 2035, 90% by 2040, and 99% before 2050 conditional on no nuclear war. Bergman says regulation adds uncertainty and cautions readers to take his estimates with a grain of salt. The plotted horizon uses his stated 50% “actual guess.”
Source notes
Discovered through public archives and checked against X’s official public oEmbed. Author, post ID and visible wording verified; UTC publication date decoded from the post ID. This records the speaker’s view, not the archive’s assessment of AGI.