Prediction · AGI
Nils Nilsson on AGI
Said
A 50% chance that machines could perform roughly 80% of human jobs by 2050.
Source summary · not a verbatim quotation.
50% chance · Expected by 2050
Nilsson explicitly substituted an employment-based criterion for a vague human-level intelligence threshold. His corresponding 10% and 90% dates were 2030 and 2100, assuming no catastrophe.
Source notes
Primary email Q&A published January 9, 2012; entry uses Nilsson's response and his own definition.