Prediction · AGI
Elon Musk on AGI
Said
“My estimate of the probability of Grok 5 achieving AGI is now at 10% and rising”
This was an explicitly probabilistic assessment of an upcoming model.
- Model / system named
- Grok 5
Source notes
Exact wording, author and October 18, 2025 publication date verified in the original post’s official public X embed. The probability concerns Grok 5 achieving AGI; no calendar deadline is stated.