Prediction · AGI
John McCarthy on AGI
Said
The required breakthroughs could take anywhere from five to five hundred years.
Source summary · not a verbatim quotation.
Expected 1982–2477
McCarthy emphasized the unpredictability of conceptual breakthroughs. This unusually wide range is a counterpoint to confident near-term forecasts.
- Original terminology
- intelligent machines
Source notes
Russell quotes the interview and identifies Israel Shenker, Detroit Free Press, September 30, 1977. Original clipping not independently inspected.