Prediction · AGI + ASI

Ryan Greenblatt on AGI + ASI

Chief scientist, Redwood Research

Said July 8, 2025

There was a 25% chance of AI fully automating an AI company within four years, and a 50% chance within eight years.

Source summary · not a verbatim quotation.

The forecast concerns AI R&D and company operations, rather than every physical task. He separated capability availability from deployment. Recorded February 21, 2025; intervals run from that conversation.