Prediction · AGI
Tom Davidson on AGI
Said
If AI became highly profitable or substantially accelerated AI research this decade, it was hard to see AGI remaining absent in 2040.
Source summary · not a verbatim quotation.
He expected feedback from investment and AI-assisted research to bring AGI sooner than a simple compute extrapolation suggested. This remained conditional on AGI not being exceptionally difficult.
Source notes
Transcript: Fast AI takeoff speeds probably mean shorter AI timelines, 02:34:44.